Weekend Rewind: SCSU vs North Dakota and Other Thoughts

(Photo Prout)

St. Cloud, MN – I received a few inquiries over the weekend asking what was wrong with the Huskies. Most were prompted by the third-period collapses against Miami and North Dakota in successive series where the team yielded extra attacker goals as time was winding down. It’s a legitimate question considering the team was 14-4-0 prior to January 1 and 4-5-3 post-January 1. They are winless in the last six games after an exemplary home series against Denver on January 20/21 sweeping the Pioneers by 7-3 and 2-0 scores.

Is this concerning? Absolutely. Heading toward the playoffs, you’d like to see some momentum building as it’s “one-and-done” in the playoffs whether it’s the NCHC Frozen Faceoff or the NCAA tournament.

NCHC officiating really seems to be hair-trigger this season. They called an abundance of hooking and holding calls this past weekend which falls into the category of subjective. It’s confusing for the players and frustrating for the fans and coaches. Of the 11 goals scored in the series, seven (63%) were on the power play. The game is not meant to be played that way. I doubt it will change and the players and coaches will just have to deal with it.

Heading into the North Dakota series one of the major issues was a penalty kill that was south of 70% since January 1. It isn’t the number of penalties but ill-timed penalties including major penalties that certainly contributed to the losses to Miami, Colorado College, and UMD. Against UND, one of the top power plays in the country, the Huskies again had difficulty with a penalty kill that ended the weekend at 57%. However, on Saturday, the PK unit staved off a five-minute major to Josh Luedtke that was critical to the outcome of the game (UND did score just seconds after it expired). Unless they can get this portion of their special team’s play figured out it is certain to be costly against the increased skill level of teams in the playoffs. For the season, the PK unit is at 75.8% which is 54th out of 61 teams in college hockey.

A highly interesting statistic is that the Huskies have only allowed 12 even strength (5×5 goals) in the last 14 games – (.850 GPG). That statistic shows the impact penalties have had on their results.

(Photo Prout)

There’s been a lot of line shuffling lately. That’s always an indication that a line has become stagnant and not performing as expected. Sometimes it’s done for motivational purposes. One thing for certain is that prior to January 1 the offense was producing 3.66 goals per game. Since January 1 the production has dropped to 2.83 goals per game which include six games against teams in the lower half of the conference. Hopefully, they can settle on line combinations that work.

I guess we’ll never know the impact that Dylan Anhorn would have on the second half of the season but it is a fact that the team had a 73.91 winning percentage with Anhorn in the lineup and 25% since he’s been out with injury. He’s been out of the lineup for seven games yet is still fourth on the team in points and still in the top ten in the country in points by a defenseman. His impact on special teams has been noticeable.

However, before we jump off a cliff, maybe we need to take a deep breath and reflect on the positives. As frustrating as the home Miami series was, the Huskies took 4 of 6 league points. Walking the concourse of the REA following Saturday’s game, I ran into Spencer Meier’s parents, and his mother, Jennifer pointed out that as frustrating as Friday was, the team still garnered three league points equating to a weekend split in a very difficult road venue to play. She’s right – a three-point weekend on the road in a hostile environment at Engelstad Arena is certainly acceptable.

On the positive side, the Huskies power play was 4/8 against the Fighting Hawks and is currently 6th in the country at 25.6%. The goaltending tandem of Jaxon Castor and Dominic Basse continues to be effective ranked 5th in the country allowing an average of 2.20 goals per game and 9th in save percentage at .915%.

Jami Krannila (Photo Prout)

Jami Krannila had a highly productive weekend in Grand Forks netting three goals ( two on the power play) to increase his season total to 19 which has him tied for 5th in the country. Jaxon Castor had an excellent outing on Saturday stopping 28/30 shots for a .933 SV%.

Despite an overtime loss and overtime tie the Pairwise formula worked to the Huskies advantage allowing them to climb from 7th to 5th after Saturday’s game. The CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix currently has the Huskies at a 99% lock for the NCAA tournament. PlayoffStatus.com also has the Huskies a 99% lock to make the NCAA tourney. Based on the relative strength of teams in their remaining schedule, the Huskies most likely conference finish is 3rd or 4th. That’s slightly better than where they were expected to finish this season. The best-case scenario has the team finishing 2nd if they sweep their next four games. The worst-case scenario is for the team to finish 4th if they go 0-4 in their final four games.

Currently, the Huskies are three points in arrears of Western Michigan and two points behind Omaha, their next opponent. The Broncos have a tough series at home vs league-leading Denver. A successful weekend could find the Huskies in 2nd place heading into the final regular season home series with the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs on March 3-4.

Standings 

#College Hockey News